Taliban: Who will bell the cat?

In a previous blog, `Back to the Taliban’, I had suggested that the Taliban’s comeback in Afghanistan was imminent, with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. But the swiftness (under two weeks) at which it happened has taken all by surprise.

US President Joe Biden’s exhorting of Afghan government troops to fight for their country cut no ice with the latter, as they seemed to abandon posts in capitulation to the Taliban. Now, the Taliban has caught the US and its allies off-guard, by entering Kabul with US and allied diplomats still present in the city.

20 years since the US exerted its presence in Afghanistan, a protracted war that never witnessed the decimation of the enemy, and the manifestation of the worst forebodings of the Afghan people; and the defeated US has grown tired and called it quits. The swift Taliban onslaught has caused a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan, with half a million people uprooted from their homes. In fact, the Taliban has returned ever-so triumphant, compelling new players to act or take cognizance of the immediacy and reality in the region.

The Central Asian nations, which are under the influence of Russia, will be sitting uncomfortable with the fear that the Taliban will export its brand of Islamism to the region. In fact, the resurgence of the Taliban will make them even more dependent on Russia to counter the Taliban’s influence.

The Soviet Union, itself, had invaded and occupied Afghanistan, in 1979, out of fear that Islamic extremism was threatening the Central Asian region. But it burnt its fingers sorely against the mujaheedin, that had the overt support of Pakistan and the US. Today, as Russia, it would refrain from putting its boots on the ground a second time to stymie the Taliban’s influence.

India, that invested billions of dollars in reconstructing Afghanistan, will be at a total loss with the knowledge that it may never be on cordial terms with the Taliban. Worse, the resurgence of the Taliban may vindicate its arch-rival Pakistan and anti-India militant outfits there. And still worse, may boost insurgency in its restive state, Kashmir.

Iran, Afghanistan’s neighbour on the western front, never really sympathised with the Taliban, even though the duo had a common enemy in the US.

China, will be both opportunistic and wary. For one, the US’ abandoning of Afghanistan will offer it another playground for its burgeoning forceful diplomacy. On the other hand, the Taliban may strengthen Uighur militancy in China’s Muslim province of Xinjiang.

For Pakistan, it may seem like all-trumps at the moment. Because, its decades-long overt support of the Taliban has finally paid off. And, it will be a key player in an any international diplomacy with the Taliban. But a closer look will tell you that it can’t be easy for Pakistan henceforth. The Taliban may be encouraged to stoke the Taliban elements in Pakistan. It’s going to be an uneasy victory for Pakistan.

International diplomacy aside, the Taliban may well note, at this point, that any peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan will seem chimerical without getting all ethnic minorities and war-lords at the table. It would do well to abandon its revengeful, illiberal and immoderate ways and be clement with ethnic minorities. What we can all hope for, at this juncture, is at least a mildly enlightened Taliban.