The agreement by G-20 (the 20 most developed countries in the world) leaders, at the extraordinary meeting on Afghanistan early this week, that they have no option but to involve the Taliban in dispensing aid to Afghanistan to avert a humanitarian crisis in that country, indicates that the world will be increasingly hard-pressed to engage the Taliban in the near future.
Mario Draghi, the Italian prime minister and current rotating chair of the G20, said there was a consensus at the meeting to act through the UN, and its agencies: “Addressing the humanitarian crisis will require contacts with the Taliban, but this does not mean their recognition. We must acknowledge that they will be judged for what they do, not for what they say.”
He added: “It is very hard to see how you can help people in Afghanistan without involving the Taliban.”
Pakistan has been responsible for single-handedly engendering the humanitarian meltdown in Afghanistan, with its overt and covert abetting of the Taliban, that saw the Taliban make a comeback in Afghanistan, and the cessation of all humanitarian aid to that country. Afghanistan had been dependent on foreign aid to the extent of 75% of its national income, to survive, before the Taliban seized control in August.
So obsessed was Pakistan with undermining arch-adversary India’s involvement in Afghanistan, that it went to the extent of sabotaging the US’ endeavour in Afghanistan, resulting in the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. For India, it is poignant that it spent billions of dollars in Afghanistan under the US presence, in efforts to ensure that the threat of potential Islamic terrorism is muted.
The US, for its part, has avoided proscription of Pakistan, given its strategic concerns in the South Asian region. In fact, it has now simply ignored Pakistan’s duplicitous campaign in Afghanistan, that was designed to ensure that US money and lives had been spent in vain; and greeted Pakistan’s new-found passion in advocating the US re-engagement with the Taliban, with a sense of alacrity. In this sense, the US’ ability to switch cars, to suit its convenience, is legion.
In fact, so swift was the US take on Afghanistan, that it met with Taliban leaders in Doha, Qatar just before the G20 extraordinary summit on Afghanistan. The US is keen not to sacrifice an advantage to its new Cold War adversary, China, and to re-establish its intelligence presence in Afghanistan, with the complicity of Pakistan.
For the Taliban, it is a matter of necessity, not ideology, to see the floodgates of Western aid re-opening, as it has gained control of a financially bankrupt country. And it would be tacit, that the US would free up the nearly $9bn of Afghan assets, frozen in US banks, if it plays into US hands. The Taliban is also well aware that the other options it has available, Russia and China, are tight fisted. And Iran is broke.
China and Russia have both expressed willingness to work with the Taliban as Afghanistan’s official government. China is eager to engage with the Taliban, as it sees an opportunity to line-up infrastructure projects in that country. As also, it, being a resource-hungry nation, has its eyes on Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources, such as copper, oil, natural gas and iron ore. China’s involvement with the Taliban would also be imperative to ensure that its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will be able to proceed smoothly, and that the hard-line Islamist group doesn’t get involved in stoking militancy in China’s restive Muslim province of Xinjiang.
That, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi met with senior Taliban leaders, in September, soon after the Taliban gained power in Afghanistan, is an indicator of how serious China is about Afghanistan.
Russia, that is the subject of diplomatic tensions with the West, did not attend the G20 summit on Afghanistan. But has made its intentions clear, by arranging a rival Afghanistan conference in Moscow on 20 October, to which Pakistan, India and Iran, as well as the Taliban have been invited. The advantage for both, Russia and China, in engaging the Taliban, is that they are not at all particular about human rights, as the West is.
While Iran and the Taliban have a common enemy in the US, Iran has its own apprehensions, as the Afghan Taliban is virulently anti-Shia; and Iran is a majority Shia nation. The Pakistan Taliban, in fact, has been involved in sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shias in Pakistan. Pakistan has a large Shia population.
For India, the current situation is a virtual impasse, as Pakistan will shut all doors, and windows, for that matter, to any Indian engagement with the Taliban.
As former Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh stated, after the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, that the Taliban are being micromanaged by Pakistan’s notorious intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, and that Pakistan is in charge of the war-ravaged country, effectively as a colonial power.
The indelible truth is, Pakistan has the key to any international engagement with Afghanistan. It will be Pakistan’s predilection as to who gains access to Afghanistan and its resources – the US, or its adversaries China and Russia. To Pakistan’s credit goes the success of having defeated two superpowers in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union in the eighties; and now, the US. Indeed, Pakistan’s wilful and protracted villainy in Afghanistan has ended in manifesting for itself the status of an undeserving hero in the Afghanistan imbroglio.
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