US cannot expect India to kowtow to it on Ukraine 

The US is convinced that Russia will invade Ukraine. On Saturday, 19 February, US President Joe Biden said: “As of this moment, I am convinced he (Vladimir Putin)’s made the decision, we have reason to believe that.” Russian misinformation is building up to a false justification for Mr Putin to make that move, Mr Biden said, accusing Russia of ceasefire violations in the rapidly escalating crisis. 

“Over the last few days, we’ve seen reports of a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukraine in the Donbas,” Mr Biden said, referring to the disinformation that he said has been spread by Russian state media, including a “phony” claim of genocide in the Donbas region. 

Mr Biden said the claims by the Russians just doesn’t make sense. 

“It defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would choose this moment — with well over 150,000 troops arranged on its borders — to escalate a year-long conflict,” he said. 

Earlier this month (February), White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre spoke to reporters about the imminence of the invasion “We will not comment on any details of our intelligence information except that it could begin this week, despite a lot of speculation that it would happen after the Olympics. It remains unclear which path Russia will choose to take,” she said. 

The US is ready for any situation, Jean-Pierre asserted. 

“President Biden has made it very clear on his call with Putin this weekend that if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States, together with our allies and partners, will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia,” she noted. 

Biden reiterated that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing, she said. 

Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. For two months now, there has been a continued build-up, much to the consternation of Western allies. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied it has plans to attack Ukraine. But the US believes that war is likely, what with Russia’s stationing of troops along the border with Ukraine; and the conducting of sweeping military manoeuvres, including motorised infantry and artillery units in southwestern Russia practising firing live ammunition, warplanes in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea performing bombing runs, dozens of warships sailing for training exercises in the Black Sea and the Arctic, and Russian fighter jets and paratroopers arriving in Belarus for joint war games. 

Diplomacy, to resolve the issue at this point, seems at a virtual stalemate as Russia has demanded guarantees that NATO will never admit Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations as its members and that the military alliance will roll back troop deployments in former Soviet bloc nations. Demands which may be unacceptable to the NATO.  

The Biden administration has said that it will not go on the ground in Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, in case of an invasion. But there are about 200 members of the Florida National Guard currently in Ukraine, that have been training forces in the western part of the country.  

The US has about 70,000 troops in Europe, but only around 6,000 are in eastern Europe. The NATO consists of 30-member states including the US. 

Meanwhile, the US is lobbying hard for more support for its stance, including from Quad members, on the Ukraine crisis. During the recently concluded Quad ministerial in Melbourne that included foreign ministers from Australia, India, Japan and the United States, US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said there was a discussion of Russia and Ukraine. 

“There was a strong consensus in that meeting that there needs to be a diplomatic — a peaceful resolution to this. One of the core tenants of the Quad is to reinforce the rules based on international order,” he said. 

“And that is a rules-based order that applies equally in the Indo-Pacific as it does in Europe as it does anywhere else. We know that our Indian partners are committed to that rules-based international order. There are any number of tenets in that order. One of them is that borders cannot be redrawn by force,” he added. 

The reference to India shows how keen the US is that India takes a stand in its favour on the Ukraine crisis. India, on its part, has been non-committal. At the Quad meeting, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar did not join his counterparts from Australia and Japan in excoriating Russia, but stated that the Quad should focus on the Indo-Pacific, and that India has already made its stand clear at the UN Security Council.  

India, on 31 January, abstained from a vote on the Ukraine issue in the UN Security Council and had called for finding a solution that takes into account “the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond.” 
 

India has had very close ties with Russia right from the Soviet era, and it would be apt to remind the US, at this juncture, that the US had, all through that time, been stolid in its support of India’s arch-rival Pakistan, with whom India has fought three wars. The US had, in fact, turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s terror infiltration in India, because Pakistan suited its strategic interests. It was only in the aftermath of 9/11 that the US took a semblance of a voice against Pakistan’s relentless and villainous export of terror. 

The dynamics of the US interests in South Asia have changed, particularly with Quad, but not the cordial relationship that India enjoys with Russia. 

Besides, 56 percent of India’s weapons imports comes from Russia, making the latter the largest supplier of arms to India. India also imports 1.8 million tonnes of thermal coal from Russia per year and about 43,400 bpd oil from Russia (2021 figures). 

In the light of the above, the US simply cannot expect India to be vocal in its fulmination of Russia in the Ukraine crisis, international order principles or no principles. The US itself has displayed, on several occasions on the global stage, that its strategic interests matter to it more than principles. How can it, then, expect India to compromise on its own strategic interests?