On Friday, 6 May 2022, China flew 18 warplanes into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) as part of the military drills it is undertaking in the East China Sea, amid growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In response, Taiwan deployed defensive weapons to monitor China’s activities.
“Radio warnings issued and air defense missile systems deployed to monitor the activities,” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said in an update after announcing that Chinese warplanes entered the nation’s air defence zone. This is the second largest entry China has made into the zone. Earlier this year, 39 Chinese warplanes flew into Taiwan’s ADIZ.
China, last week, announced that it was intensifying “realistic combat” exercises in the East China Sea. On Tuesday, 3 May 2022, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command revealed the details of a recent navy strike group drill, stating that the drills were “closely related to its missions and tasks, focused on combat enemies and highlighted actual combat conditions.”
“This training … helped the troops to further improve their capability and toughness in combat to win battles,” the command said. “East China Sea sailors are always ready for battle.”
The command revealed over 10 kinds of drills, such as close-in gun defence, main gun attack on the sea, tracking and surveillance, damage control, and search and rescue operations.
China, over the past two years, and more particularly recently, has showcased its increasing might with repeated drills in the region. The current one is led by China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning. The carrier and six accompanying navy warships are conducting military training with fighter jets and helicopters in the Western Pacific Ocean. Not too far in the distance is the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which is deployed in the Philippine Sea.
A People’s Liberation Army (PLA) spokesman, Gao Xiucheng, has described the current exercises as a routine training mission. “It is in line with relevant international laws and practices, and without targeting any party,” Gao said Tuesday, 3 May 2022.
Last month (April 2022), the Eastern Theater Command organised multi-services and arms, dispatching forces including destroyers, frigates, bombers and fighters, and conducted joint combat alert patrols and drills including maritime assault, in the East China Sea and in waters and aerial areas around Taiwan
The recent spate of PLA’s military drills around the Taiwan Strait comes in the wake of Chinese outrage over a visit by a group of US lawmakers to Taiwan in February 2022. China resolutely denounced the visit by a five-member US delegation, headed by former US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, to Taiwan, as the island’s president Tsai Ing-wen asserted that she would work more closely with allies in response to China’s growing military and diplomatic bullying.
The delegation of former US top security and defence officials was sent by US President Joe Biden in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“The attempt by the US to show support to Taiwan will be in vain, no matter who the US sends,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin excoriated in response. “The Chinese people are firmly determined and resolved to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he added.
Ever since the visit, there has been increasing tension in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan has been keen to shore up US support by joining Western-led sanction on Russia, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It also released a statement that implied its own predicament vis-a-vis China.
“The government deeply regrets that Russia, instead of resolving disputes through peaceful diplomatic negotiations, has chosen to use force and intimidation to bully others,” a Taiwan Foreign Ministry statement emphasised.
China perceives democratic Taiwan as a recalcitrant breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state, with its own constitution, military, and elected leaders.
Of late, China has upped the ante over its rhetoric on Taiwan being part of China. Chinese President Xi Jinping has even hinted, in the recent past, that China may take Taiwan forcibly. He has explicitly stated that “Taiwanese independence separatism” was “the most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation”. Taiwan’s insecurities have heightened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, considering that it may set a precedent for a Chinese invasion of the island nation.
Last month (April 2022), Taiwan’s military released a handbook on civil defence, for the first time in the history of the nation, giving citizens survival guidance in a war scenario, in case of a Chinese invasion. The handbook details how to find bomb shelters via smartphone apps, water and food supplies, as well as tips for preparing emergency first aid kits.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has vowed repeatedly to defend the island and is overseeing a broad modernisation programme to make its forces more mobile and harder to attack.
The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), states that the US will maintain the capacity to defend Taiwan but does not state whether or not the United States would actually militarily intervene if China attacked – ultimately this remains a US presidential decision. Over the past decade, the US has announced more than $20 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
But, in 1979, US military might far outmatched China’s. Today with China’s growing military power, it is a different ball game altogether. And China is increasingly preparing itself for an invasion of Taiwan, targeting a victory for itself and defeat for the US.
In November 2021, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) said in its 2021 Annual Report to Congress that China has or is close to achieving an initial capability to invade Taiwan, one that remains under development but that China’s leaders may employ at high risk — while deterring, delaying, or defeating US military intervention.
The PLA will continue to develop all of these capabilities to enhance Chinese leaders’ confidence that it can successfully execute an invasion campaign, the USCC said.
Cross-Strait deterrence still holds today because Chinese leaders remain deeply concerned about the uncertain success of an attempted invasion as well as its risks and consequences. Failed attempts by the PLA to invade Taiwan or to counter US intervention risk undermining the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy, the report said.
On 28 November 2021, Xi Jinping talked of rapid modernisation of the armed forces and triumphing in future wars. “Strengthening the capabilities to fight and win should be the starting point and ultimate goal of military talent cultivation,” Xi said. This statement came amid reports that the Chinese military had committed more resources to enrol an additional three lakh personnel for front-line positions.
In 2022, the Chinese national defence budget was hiked 7.1 percent compared with the previous year. Clearly, China is intent on catching up with the US and superseding it as the leading military power in the world. For Taiwan, that depends heavily on the US for its future survival, a stronger China, that matches the US militarily, is a nightmare of a portent.
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