US President Joe Biden played host to the leaders of member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, at the US-ASEAN Special Summit in Washington Thursday, 12 May and Friday, 13 May in a bid to reaffirm US priority for the region in the wake of the increasing strategic rivalry with China in engaging the 10-member bloc. The ASEAN constitutes the seventh-largest economy in the world with a GDP of 3.2 trillion, and a population of over 680 million.
Eight out of 10 ASEAN leaders attended the summit, held at the State Department and the White House. The Philippines and Myanmar were absent.
The summit also featured the US’ bid to shore up support for its stance against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trade relations, and the US’ insistence on a free and open Indo-Pacific.
However, besides an affirmation of US commitment to ASEAN and a show of affability, the summit came out without any specifics. The only concrete outcome was the US’ pledging of more than US$150 million in new initiatives to members of the ASEAN and support for maritime security, with the US Coast Guard to deploy a cutter in South-east Asia to help fight illegal fishing and other crime.
In contrast, much was said in terms of verbose. Biden told the leaders of ASEAN during the summit that “a great deal of history of our world in the next 50 years is going to be written in the ASEAN countries” and “… our relationship with you is the future, in the coming years and decades.”
Speaking at the Department of State, on 13 May, US Vice President Kamala Harris told the leaders that the Biden administration “recognises the vital strategic importance of your region, a role that will only grow with time”.
She also stated that: “As an Indo-Pacific nation, the United States will be present and continue to be engaged in South-east Asia for generations to come.” She did not mention China directly, but said the US stood with its “allies and partners in defending the maritime rules-based order, which includes freedom of navigation and international law”.
At the onset of the summit, China cautioned the US against engaging in bloc confrontations, rather, to meet the needs of Asean countries by promoting peace and cooperation. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said China welcomes any initiative that promotes long-term sustainable development and common prosperity in the region.
“What I want to say is that China and the US are both Asia-Pacific countries and can have a common circle of friends. The key is to listen to the voices of Asia-Pacific countries to maintain peace, and deepen cooperation,” Zhao said, urging the US to play a positive and constructive role.
US President Joe Biden took office in January 2021 saying that his top foreign policy priority would be global competition with China. The ASEAN, on its part, is keen to play it neutral in view of the US-China rivalry in the region, and in the Indo-Pacific as a whole. But for ASEAN, maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea are a major obstacle in its relations with the Eastern superpower.
Recently, there were renewed incidents with ASEAN members the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam in maritime areas in and around the South China Sea. China has impeded commercial activity like fishing or mineral exploration by countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, claiming that the ownership of territory belonged to China for hundreds of years.
Over the last five years, China has displayed exceptionable conduct in rapidly building artificial islands housing significant military infrastructure on what had been low-lying reefs in the South China Sea, in a region also claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. China has maritime disputes with six of the 10 ASEAN bloc countries.
In fact, China claims 90% of the South China Sea as its sovereign territory. The South China Sea is a region of tremendous economic and geostrategic importance. One-third of the world’s maritime shipping passes through it, carrying over USD 3 trillion in trade each year. Huge oil and natural gas reserves are believed to lie beneath its seabed. It also contains lucrative fisheries, which are crucial for the food security of millions in South-east Asia.
The US, in June 2020, formally rejected most of China’s claims in the South China Sea. While the US does not claim rights over any territory in the region, it supports the claims of various South-east Asian countries, and has historically vindicated that by conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea.
But China, through economic statecraft, is increasingly determined to get a stranglehold on the region. Its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), focusing on infrastructure, and new regional trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to accelerate intra-Asian integration around China.
China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 2009. Trade between ASEAN and China more than doubled since 2010, from USD 235.5 billion to USD 507.9billion in 2019 (18% of ASEAN’s total) and almost quadrupled since the entry into force of the ASEAN-China Trade in Goods Agreement in 2005. ASEAN’s exports to China grew at an average annual rate of 10.4% from 2010 to 2019 as compared to 12.5% for ASEAN’s import from China during the same period. ASEAN’s trade deficit with China increased from USD 10.4 billion in 2010 to USD 102.9 billion in 2019.
FDI flows from China to ASEAN reached USD 9.1 billion in 2019, accounting for 5.7% of total FDI flows to the region
In contrast, U.S trade with ASEAN was USD 272.0 billion during 2018. Goods exports totaled USD 86.2 billion; goods imports totaled USD 185.8 billion.
ASEAN is keen to reduce its economic dependence on China. But it is increasingly frustrated by the protectionism of the Trump-era that still persists in the US. With protectionist sentiment still running high among the US electorate, it would be difficult for Biden to increase market access for ASEAN.
Even as far as defence supplies go, the US is not numero uno as a defence supplier to ASEAN. It is Russia that is the largest arms supplier to the bloc. Between 2000 and 2019, Russia sold $10.7 billion-worth of defence equipment to Asean nations, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The US, which is the region’s second-biggest supplier, sold $7.9 billion, a third less. China sold $2.6 billion over the same period.
While ASEAN countries are highly aware of US-China competition in the region, what with the formation of AUKUS and China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, they would like to maintain a dynamic equipoise between the two superpowers. They are predisposed to not making a choice between the two. For the US, the hope is that ASEAN will stand up to Chinese aggression or at least voice support for a rules-based order that constrains Chinese behavior. And for China, that has a covert and premeditated agenda to drive a wedge between ASEAN nations, a divided ASEAN, that is already divided to some extent, will enable it to continue to manifest its overwhelming influence in the region and have its way with its aggressive postures in the South China Sea.
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