While the war in Ukraine has now stretched on for over six months, the US is keen to prove to its Indo-Pacific allies that it has no less prioritised the region. In fact, it has sought to launch a counterpoise to China on three fronts – Taiwan, to the south; Japan to the east; and India, to the west.
The recent tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with China’s relentless belligerence notwithstanding, the US has maintained that its warships will continue to make Taiwan Strait transits (in vindication of Taiwan) and perform freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in the Indo-Pacific, to contest Chinese maritime claims.
Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said during a press briefing, early August 2022: “We will continue to stand by our allies and partners. So even as China tries to kind of chip away at the status quo, our policy is to maintain the status quo with [a] free and open Indo-Pacific which, frankly, is when I think most of the countries in the region would prefer.”
China launched an aggressive offensive in the Taiwan Strait ever since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on 2-3 August 2022, that China had strongly decried. China resoundingly excoriates any legitimacy given by the US to Taiwan, a self-governed island that China claims is part of its sovereign territory.
China sees Taiwan as a recalcitrant breakaway province, while Taiwan perceives itself as a sovereign state, with its own constitution, military and elected leaders, far removed from autocratic China.
On the eve of Pelosi’s visit, China inveighed that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “will never sit idly by” and watch Pelosi visit Taiwan despite repeated warnings to avoid the island.
The US has dared China with Pelosi’s visit to breakaway Taiwan, prompting much Chinese ire; and China has retaliated with missile tests and military “operations” around the island.
Twelve days after the Pelosi visit, a US delegation of lawmakers, led by Senator Ed Markey, arrived in Taiwan for a two-day visit during which they met Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen – the second high-level group to come amid continued military tensions with the island’s giant neighbour, China, much to the latter’s disconcertment.
In another act of defiance, US Senator Marsha Blackburn met with Tsai in Taipei on Friday, 26 August 2022, making it the second visit by members of Congress since Pelosi’s trip earlier this month (August 2022).
China’s response was transits by scores of warships and aircraft across the median line with Taiwan and the launch of missiles across the Taiwan Strait, for weeks. China’s incursions into Taiwanese space have now become the new normal for Taiwan.
Taiwan has accused China of using the Pelosi visit as an excuse to kick-start military drills that would allow it to rehearse for an invasion.
China, on its part, has been increasingly and vehemently vociferous about validating the One-China policy that proclaims Taiwan as part of China.
The US has said that it abides by the One-China policy and does not subscribe to independence for Taiwan, but the US is required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself under the US Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
The 1979 TRA states that the US will maintain the capacity to defend Taiwan but is not forthcoming on whether or not the US would actually militarily intervene if China attacked – ultimately this remains a US presidential decision. Over the past decade, the US has announced more than USD 20 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
Since Joe Biden became president in January 2021 alone, the US has made over USD 1.2 billion and five transactions in weapons sales to Taiwan. In addition, in July 2022, the US State Department approved selling military equipment worth USD 108 million to Taiwan. This month (August 2022), Taiwan and the US extended (worth USD 83 million) a contract for missile engineering services to maintain better operations of the island’s Patriot-3 missile defence system.
To heighten China’s irascibility is the fact that the US says it intends to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl, early this month (August 2022), reaffirmed that the US will maintain its “one China” policy but objects to any change in the status quo. To add to China’s disquiet, the US, this month, said it would continue freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, despite China’s warnings for it to steer clear of these waters. The US, in fact, said it would continue to operate wherever international law permits, including the South China Sea.
As for India, China shares a 3,488-km-long border with the South Asian nation, and much of it is under dispute. Each side currently has deployed around 50,000 to 60,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, India’s northern-most territory.
Today, China continues to occupy vast swathes of Indian territory in eastern Ladakh, that it annexed in the only war between the two nations (that lasted four weeks) in 1962. The PLA has recently taken possession of Patrolling Point (PP) 15 in Hot Springs and PP17A near Gogra post in Ladakh, which are claimed by India. And has amassed additional troops across the border, armed with artillery, air defences, combat drones and heavy vehicles.
China’s territorial excessiveness and aggression are also exhibited by its opening up additional fronts along the border with India’s states of Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. China claims 83,743 square km of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh that borders the LAC across from the Tibet Autonomous Region. Since China annexed Tibet in 1950, it has laid stakes on Arunachal Pradesh, calling it ‘southern Tibet’ and hence, its territory.
China has also been building infrastructure at a hectic pace along its border with India, to enable the quick mobilisation of troops in case of battle. The Chinese have been building dozens of large weather-proof structures in eastern Ladakh for their troops to stay in during winter. New helipads, wider airstrips, new barracks, new surface-to-air missile sites and radar locations have also been reported by Indian media.
China is now constructing a second bridge in an area held by it around the strategically key Pangong Tso lake in eastern Ladakh, prompting the US Army’s Pacific Commanding General Charles A. Flynn to state: “The destabilising and corrosive behaviour of Chinese Community Party (CCP) in the Indo-Pacific region is simply not helpful and some of the defence infrastructure that is being set up by China near its border with India is alarming.”
The US’ ongoing support for Taipei may not be the only reason for Chinese discomposure. The US military is planning to hold high-altitude ground training with India less than 100 kilometers away from the South Asian country’s disputed border with China — which would put the exercises closer to Chinese territory than ever before. The timing and location of the drills are probably intended to send a strong message to the Chinese Communist Party.
The mountaintop drills are set to take place from 18-31 October 2022 in the Himalayas amid high tensions along the LAC.
The maneuvers, which will be part of the annual Yudh Abhyas (War Practice) series of Indo-US military exercises, will take place near Auli in Uttarakhand, a state that borders Tibet to the north and has been the site of what New Delhi describes as “numerous incursions” into Indian territory by Chinese PLA troops.
China’s defence ministry on Thursday, 25 August 2022, said it was firmly opposed to any third party “meddling” in the border issue and hoped India will abide by the bilateral agreements not to hold military drills near the Line of Actual Control
“We firmly oppose any third party to meddle in the China-India border issue in any form,” Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China’s ministry of national defence, told an online press conference in Beijing.
India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, on 20 August 2022, held China culpable for disregarding the border pacts with India, and jeopardising bilateral ties. He insisted that a lasting relationship cannot be a one-way street and there has to be mutual respect.
“They (Chinese) have disregarded that. You know what happened in the Galwan Valley a few years ago. That problem has not been resolved and that is clearly casting a shadow,” Jaishankar said in Sao Paulo, Brazil while on a six-day visit of Latin America.
India has traditionally been a non-aligned country, much to the frustration of the US. But any further antagonism on the part of China will push India deeper into the folds of the US and its allies. Already, India is part of the US-led Quad, an alliance that seeks to contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Like India, Japan finds common ground with the US because it is strategically aligned against China. In 2021, the US exported USD 546.2 million in arms and ammunition to Japan, a 79.8 percent increase from the USD 303.8 million exported in 2020. Arms and ammunition exports to Japan made up 12.9 percent of all US arms exports worldwide.
Japan disputes the Senkaku Islands and Ryushu Islands in the East China Sea with China.
Of late, Japan has been becoming increasingly vocal about Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Japan joined the US and Australia, early August 2022, in urging China to immediately cease its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. To compound matters, five of the ballistic missiles launched by China against Taiwan landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zones. Japan condemned China for raising tensions and destabilising the region.
Japan has been collaborating in military exercises with the US more frequently in recent times. In early July 2022, a dozen of the US Air Force’s top-of-the-line F-22 stealth fighters, four F-35 stealth jets and 13 F-15 jets took part in exercises in the Sea of Japan, the Japanese Defense Ministry said in a news release on 14 July 2022.
The US fighter jets were joined by 20 Japanese F-15 and F-2 fighters, and three US reconnaissance and support aircraft.
Also, in July 2022, US and Japanese maritime patrol aircraft conducted an exercise near the Nansei Islands, the closest Japanese territory to Taiwan and near the Senkaku Islands, the uninhabited island chain also claimed by China, which refers to them as the Diaoyus.
That exercise was conducted to “strengthen the capability of Japan-US Alliance for effective deterrence,” a Japanese statement said.
Chinese and Russian warships have been increasing their presence around Japan over the past few months. In June 2022, Tokyo said a total of eight Chinese and Russian ships were sighted in waters near Japan.
A five-ship Russian flotilla sailed near Japanese islands for a week, from Hokkaido in the north to Okinawa in the south, the Japanese Defense Ministry said in a news release.
Besides, at least two Chinese warships and a supply ship were spotted in the Izu Islands, about 500 kilometres south of Tokyo. One of those ships appeared to be the Lhasa, a Type 55 guided-missile destroyer and one of China’s most powerful surface ships.
On 22 July 2022, Japan’s defence ministry said it was alarmed at new threats from Russia and has growing worries about Taiwan (implicitly referring to China), in an annual defence report.
The paper also pointed to a year-end national security review that may seek the acquisition of longer-range strike missiles, strengthened space and cyber capabilities, and tighter controls over access to technology, as Tokyo mulls increasing defence spending following the perception of increased security threats in the region from Russia, China and North Korea.
Beijing strongly denigrated Japan’s new defence paper, with Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stating at a daily news briefing that: “Japan’s new defence white paper makes accusations and smears China’s defence policy, market economic development and legitimate maritime activities.” China never fails to emphasise the legitimacy of its maritime activities in the name of national sovereignty, which, in deed, reek of hostility to and contempt for international law; and its belligerent postures pose a serious risk to the security of nations in its environs.
Keeping the threats from China, Russia and North Korea in mind, in a Defense Ministry budget request by the end of August 2022, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party is looking to double spending over five years from this year’s USD 39.5 billion. This will effectively take Japan from ninth spot in the world for military spending to a likely third position behind the US and China.
Also, to counter China’s illegitimate aspirations, Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Forces will be involved in joint exercises with US Marines on the island of Hokkaido for two weeks from September to October 2022, the Nikkei newspaper reported. It is expected that more than four thousand military personnel will take part in the maneuvers, in what will be the largest exercise with the participation of American marines in Japan.
According to TASS, the purpose of the exercise is to increase the ability of Japan and the United States to “respond to emerging threats in East Asia,” taking into account Russia’s ongoing military special operation in Ukraine and the military strengthening of China.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force is currently taking part in a large-scale combat exercise, along with aircraft from South Korea, Australia, the US, Germany, France, India, Indonesia, Singapore and the UK in a biennial exercise called Pitch Black that will last up to 8 September 2022. The exercise is being conducted in Northern Territory, Australia and will have a force of over 100 aircraft and 2,500 personnel. This points to a show of strength against both China and Russia by the US and its allies.
The irrefutable fact is, all three nations – Taiwan, India and Japan – feel predisposed to resort to US support, both militarily and ideologically, through a shared disdain for China and because they are intimidated by the latter’s growing military power and belligerence. For India, it is a matter of territoriality. For Japan it is a matter of territoriality as well as status and influence in Asia. And for Taiwan, it is a matter of sheer survival. For the US, it is a matter of alacrity in capitalising on opportunities to checkmate a common enemy.
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