Ukraine war: Russia burning its fingers 

True to NATO Deputy-General Secretary Mircea Geoana’s words, Russia’s exceptionable war against Ukraine is increasingly seeming like a war it cannot win. Russian officials have so far not ruled out the use of chemical and nuclear weapons in their callous invasion of a staunchly resistant Ukraine, that has managed to hold out so far.  

“Mr. Putin probably believed his own post-imperial fantasies, thinking that Ukrainians will welcome them with open arms,” he said. “In fact, they got very fierce resistance. We are convinced that, today, even with reinforcements that are still coming into Ukraine, Russia does not possess the forces and the capacity to occupy the whole of Ukraine.” Geoana, the former Romanian foreign minister and ambassador to the United States said. 

By Geoana’s estimation, the Putin regime’s most significant mistake was underestimating “the bravery of the Ukrainian army” and the “unity of the political West.” 

Geoana added that NATO would be “forced to take appropriate measures” in the event of a chemical or nuclear attack. “NATO is a defensive alliance, but also it’s a nuclear alliance,” he said. 

The brutal war that Russia has waged since 24 February, is proving to be a contradiction to what Putin hoped for, the NATO official said, and has only united the West and worked to bolster the 30-nation defensive alliance. 

At a NATO summit on 17 March, alliance leaders agreed to launch four new Eastern Flank battlegroups — which usually number around 1,000-1,500 troops — to Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. 

Geoana’s words were echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has built greater unity within NATO, the European Union and the Group of Seven economies, at a news conference after the alliance’s emergency summit in Brussels. 

He said NATO has “never been more united than it is today”. 

Mr Biden also said that the US would respond if Mr Putin used weapons of mass destruction, but that the response would depend on the situation. 

“We would respond if he uses it. The nature of the response would depend on the nature of use.” Mr Biden told a news conference with the Associated Press. 

Russia’s intrepidity in enforcing a new order in Europe is proving a cropper, as the US seems to be handed an even more moral and strategic victory, at as minimal a cost as possible.  

The impact of Western sanctions on Russia has been crippling, and Russia has found itself unceremoniously dumped out of the global network. It has an ally in China, but with the war on in Ukraine, China seems to be doing little else than mere lip-service. Russia had asked China to assist it with weapons and economic support in the war. This was denied by the Chinese. 

That has not stopped China from spewing rhetoric. On 20 March, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng excoriated the far-reaching Western sanctions imposed on Russia, after it invaded Ukraine, and said the root cause of the war in Ukraine lies in the Cold War mentality and power politics. 

The Chinese envoy said if NATO’s “enlargement goes further, it would be approaching the ‘outskirts of Moscow’ where a missile could hit the Kremlin within seven or eight minutes.” 

“Pushing a major country, especially a nuclear power, to the corner would entail repercussions too dreadful to contemplate,” he said. 

This came in swift response to US President Joe Biden’s acerbically warning China of the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia. Yet, China’s defiance may only precipitate verbose as a matter of saving face. China is a highly globalised economy, and cannot risk being ostracised from the global network.  

China has been warned that it will face the same crippling sanctions as Russia, if it provides material support to Russia; something China can ill-afford. Besides, China would be hard-pressed not to undermine the outcome of the 20th Communist Party Congress later this year, and more so, Xi Jinping, who will be looking for an endorsement for another five-year term. 

For Russia, it seems very much like it is isolated in its war. Even if it manages to subjugate Ukraine and make it a neutral state, it will have failed in its attempt to garner that political heavyweight status for itself, that it seems fixated about. In fact, it has only managed to self-depredate and stands reduced in its status, what with the protracted resistance from Ukraine and Russia’s failure to culminate a short decisive war, the increased assertiveness and unity among NATO members, and in China being a very reluctant ally.