US ambiguity on Taiwan could leverage China 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has heightened fears that China will take Taiwan forcibly. The escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait, prompted US President Joe Biden to state, in Tokyo just before the Quad Summit on 23 May, that the US would intervene militarily if China invaded Taiwan.  

It is not as if Biden has made this affirmation for the first time. But the fact that he made this statement for the first time in Asia, could assume potency. Yet it may or may not be evocative of the full extent, in reality, of US commitment to the security of Taiwan. 

China was swift in responding to Biden’s remarks. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, at a press conference in Beijing on the same day, insisted that Taiwan is “purely an internal affair of China and does not allow any foreign interference. On issues involving China’s core interests such as sovereignty and territorial integrity, China has no room for compromise or concession.” 

He also asserted China’s stance by warning the US not to underestimate the “strong determination, firm will and powerful ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” 

He cautioned the US to be careful about what it says so that the situation in the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations are not damaged, adding “China will take firm action to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests, and we will do what we say!” 

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held a major exercise in the South China Sea, from 19 May to 23 May, coinciding with US President Biden’s visits to Japan and South Korea. Also, following Biden’s remarks on Taiwan, China conducted military drills on its territory not far from the Taiwan Strait.  

At the end of last month (22 May), following a US delegation’s visit to Taiwan led by Sen Tammy Duckworth, 30 Chinese warplanes made incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, the highest daily figure in more than four months. 

“The recent patrol and training exercises by the People’s Liberation Army around the Taiwan Island were necessary actions against the collusion between Taiwan and the United States,” Chinese defence spokesperson, Tan Keifei, excoriated as quoted by Chinese media mouthpiece Xinhua. 

Tan said that the PLA Eastern Theater Command had recently organised a joint war-preparedness alert patrol and combat training exercises involving troops of multiple services and arms in the waters and airspace around the Taiwan Island. 

“These are necessary actions taken targeting the collusion between Taiwan and the United States, and conforming to the need of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tan said. 

Seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ is doomed to fail, and so is supporting such actions, Tan said, adding that by playing the ‘Taiwan card’ to contain China, the United States is putting the situation in jeopardy. 

The PLA is on high alert and ready to take all necessary measures to resolutely thwart any external forces’ interference and secessionist attempts for ‘Taiwan independence’, he added. 

China’s tough-worded fulmination came even after a leaked video of a ‘War Preparedness Mobilisation’ meeting, claimed to have been held in Guangdong province, in early May, made headlines across the world.  

A YouTube channel has claimed that the recording was leaked by senior officials of Communist Party of China who want to expose Chinese President Xi Jinping’s military plan on Taiwan. The audio clip featured purported conversations between the CCP and the PLA on implementing the roadmap of the ‘normal to war transition’ plan by the top leadership. 

While the authencity of the video cannot be verified, it could also be a medium of Chinese psychological warfare. Yet, there is no doubt that China is indeed preparing for a Taiwan takeover, and Xi Jinping has, on previous occasions, indicated that China would take Taiwan by force, if necessary. 

China perceives democratic Taiwan as a recalcitrant breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state, with its own constitution, military, and elected leaders. 

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), states that the US will maintain the capacity to defend Taiwan but does not state whether or not the United States would actually militarily intervene if China attacked – ultimately this remains a US presidential decision. Over the past decade, the US has announced more than $20 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. 

In the same year (in 1979), the US recognised China and de-recognised Taiwan. It stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.” 

The US position over the Taiwan issue remains ambiguous. While Biden has, on four different occasions, pledged his commitment to defend Taiwan, the US officially keeps reiterating its acquiescence to a ‘One China,’ policy. After Biden’s inflammatory remark on 23 May, the White House quickly came out with a clarification that it views the `One China’ policy as standing. The fact that the US excluded Taiwan from its Indo-Pacific Economic Forum (it, nevertheless, set off trade negotiations with Taiwan on 1 June 2022), that was launched last month (May 2022), is a pointer to the US’ deliberate confusion on Taiwan, much to the impatience of its Asian allies, particularly Japan.  

Writing in the Straits Times (3 May), Ito Takatoshi, the former Japanese deputy vice minister of finance, endorsed former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s suggestion that the US discard ‘strategic ambiguity’ and make it ‘crystal clear’ that it would defend Taiwan against any attempted Chinese invasion. 

Failing that, he said, only the prospect of US economic sanctions might deter China from invading Taiwan. 

For the Chinese Communist Party, any signs of weakness on the part of the US will give it the leverage to carry out its invasion plans, something that is pre-eminent on its agenda – to vindicate its stature among the Chinese public. It will be pertinent for the US to note here, that in 1979, when the TRA was ratified, US military might far outmatched China’s. Today with China’s burgeoning military power, it is a different ball game altogether. Even if the US militarily intervenes to defend Taiwan, in case of a Chinese invasion, it will be difficult to ascertain confidence of success in pre-empting a Chinese victory.