China could debilitate vulnerable Taiwan with sanctions 

Taiwan is under siege. Taiwan on Saturday, 6 August 2022, said it noted a number of Chinese aircraft and naval ships conducting military drills around the Taiwan Strait, and claimed it could be a possible simulated attack against the island. 

Taiwan’s ministry of defence reported some of the Chinese aircraft and vessels had crossed the sensitive median line in the Taiwan Strait that separates the self-governed island from the Chinese mainland. 

China sees Taiwan as a recalcitrant breakaway province, while Taiwan perceives itself as a sovereign state, with its own constitution, military and elected leaders, far removed from autocratic China. 

The large-scale military drills undertaken by China in the Taiwan Strait come in the aftermath of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei on 3 August 2022, provoking China’s ire; and China has warned of severe consequences. The latest Chinese actions have stoked anxieties across the Taiwan Strait that China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. 

For the fourth day on Sunday, 7 August 2022, China carried out joint combat training exercises in the northern, southwestern and eastern waters and airspace off Taiwan Island.  

China’s four-day drills were announced on Thursday, 4 August 2022. 

On Friday, 5 August 2022, the Chinese air force under the PLA Eastern Theatre Command sent multi-type warplanes, including fighter jets, bombers, early-warning aircraft, electronic reconnaissance aircraft to conduct drills on such combat missions as airspace control operation, air support and cover, air strike, reconnaissance and early warning around the Taiwan island. 

The Taiwan Defence Ministry, which is feeling pressured by the unprecedented scale of the military build-up by China, said, on Saturday, 6 August 2022, that “multiple PLA craft were detected around Taiwan Strait, some have crossed the median line,” dividing the mainland and the island. 

“The recent coercion from PRC’s drills around us aimed to change the status quo of Taiwan Strait, violated our sovereignty, and caused tension in the Indo-Pacific region. #ROCArmedForces seek no escalation, but we succumb to no challenges and respond with reason,” it, however, asserted.

The PLA, which has gone in for the largest mobilisation of the military, including deploying an aircraft group and a nuclear submarine, has now announced another set of drills to go past the scheduled four days.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quick to assuage the ‘invasion’ anxieties. “It’s a complete rumour and slander that the US claims that China has changed the status quo in the Taiwan Straits,” he said. 

“We must solemnly warn the US not to act rashly or create a bigger crisis,” he insisted. “The People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. This is the real status quo of the Taiwan question,” Wang said. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had earlier stated: “There is no justification for this extreme, disproportionate and escalatory military response…now, they’ve taken dangerous acts to a new level.” 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying justified the Chinese retaliatory actions, saying: “the visit by Speaker Pelosi triggered the current tensions and all China’s countermeasures are justified, necessary, and proportionate.” 

Beijing has also imposed sanctions on Pelosi and her immediate family and has paused co-operation with the US in several key areas including climate change, military affairs and efforts to combat international crime. 

On 3 August 2022, Pelosi, on her visit to Taipei, stated: “It’s really important for the message to be clear… [the US] is committed to the security of Taiwan … but it’s about our shared values of democracy and freedom and how Taiwan has been an example to the world … Whether there are insecurities of the president of China relating to his own political situation I don’t know.” 

Pelosi waxed eloquent about the US’ endearing relationship with the island nation. “Our delegation came to Taiwan to make unequivocally clear we will not abandon Taiwan, and we are proud of our enduring friendship,” Pelosi said. Now more than ever, US solidarity with Taiwan was “crucial”, she emphasised. 

Pelosi said, 43 years ago, the US made a “bedrock promise to always stand with Taiwan”. “On this strong foundation we have built a thriving partnership,” she added. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan becomes significant as she is the second in line to the US presidency. Pelosi included Taiwan on her itinerary after much media speculation and hushed up plans for a tryst, amid China’s blunt expression of consternation over a potential visit. Pelosi was on a whirlwind tour of Asia, which included stops at Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. She is the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years. Republican Newt Gingrich visited the island in 1997 when he was House speaker. 

Taiwan’s President, Tsai Ing-wen, in turn, said Taiwan “will not back down” in the face of heightened military threats, and would “do whatever it takes to maintain Taiwan’s peace and stability”. 

She said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had made security over the Taiwan Strait a focus of the world’s attention. 

Tsai Ing-wen, who has been vocal about Taiwan’s assertion of independence from Mainland China, was re-elected by a landslide in 2020 on the pledge of defending the island’s democracy from autocratic China. China is increasingly concerned that Taiwan will make a formal declaration of independence. Tsai’s government has maintained the position that “Taiwan is already an independent state, making any formal declaration unnecessary”. 

China has been increasingly and vehemently vociferous about validating the One-China policy that proclaims Taiwan as part of China.  

The US has said that it abides by the One-China policy and does not subscribe to independence for Taiwan, but the US is required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself under the US Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).  

The 1979 TRA states that the US will maintain the capacity to defend Taiwan but is not forthcoming on whether or not the US would actually militarily intervene if China attacked – ultimately this remains a US presidential decision. Over the past decade, the US has announced more than USD 20 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. 

Before Pelosi’s visit, China inveighed that the People’s Liberation Army “will never sit idly by” and watch Pelosi visit Taiwan despite repeated warnings to avoid the island. 

The US has dared China with Pelosi’s visit to breakaway Taiwan, prompting much Chinese anger; and China has retaliated with missile tests and military “operations” around the island. 

The US, Australia and Japan, meanwhile, have issued a joint statement urging China to immediately cease its military exercises and reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. They condemned China’s launch of ballistic missiles, five of which the Japanese government reported landed in its exclusive economic zones, raising tension and destabilising the region. 

For US President Joe Biden, it would have been judicious to have eschewed what may be perceived as an assertive but nominal visit to avoid putting Taiwan’s fragile independence at risk. Chinese President Xi Jinping is obsessed with the idea of merging Taiwan with the mainland.  He has made it his prime objective while in power. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan severely undermines what Xi stands for and his position as leader of the world’s most populous nation. This is very irksome to Xi, more so because he will be seeking a third five-year term in power when the Congress of the ruling Communist Party of China meets in the next few months. Xi, 68, will be completing 10 years in power this year. All his predecessors have retired after two terms. 

While the US is making its point about upholding Taiwan’s democracy and freedom, it is Taiwan that will have to pay a price if China imposes wanton economic sanctions on it.  

Just a day after Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, China’s Ministry of Commerce halted the supply of natural sand, a vital material for semiconductor production and construction to Taiwan, and stopped the imports of citrus fruit and fish products from Taiwan. 

Potentially, China can cause serious damage to Taiwan’s economy by discontinuing the factory operations in China of a large number of Taiwanese companies producing such products as auto parts, consumer electronics and industrial chemicals that are vital not only to Taiwan’s economy but to the world’s supply chains as well.  

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner accounting for 42 percent of Taiwan’s exports and 22 percent of its imports, totaling a staggering $270 billion, as of 2021. 

China cannot do much body harm to the US, but it could economically debilitate Taiwan, leave alone the spectre of an invasion. It is with this in mind, that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan cannot be touted as a pragmatic endeavour.