Communist Party spokesman Sun Yeli, on Saturday, 15 October 2022, reaffirmed China’s stance on Taiwan, stating that the reunification of China and Taiwan meets the interests of all, including Taiwan compatriots.
Sun said Beijing will do all it takes to bring Taiwan under its control peacefully. But he said China would not tolerate what he called a movement towards full independence backed by hardliners on the island and their overseas patrons. The US is Taiwan’s primary vindicator, both militarily and diplomatically.
The Chinese statement came almost a week after Taiwan celebrated its Double Tenth Day or the 111th anniversary of the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name, on 10 October 2022.
In a speech addressing the Taiwanese nation on that momentous day, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen called on Beijing to work with Taipei to find a “mutually agreeable arrangement” to uphold cross-strait peace and stability, saying military confrontation is not an option for the two sides.
“I want to make clear to the Beijing authorities that armed confrontation is absolutely not an option for our two sides,” she said.
In the wake of intensified military threats and disinformation campaigns by China over recent years, Tsai asked Beijing not to be off-beam on account of Taiwan’s democratic system.
“They must not mistake that there is room for compromise in the Taiwanese people’s commitment to democracy and freedom, and thus attempt to divide Taiwanese society by exploiting the fierce competition between our political parties,” she said, adding that this way of thinking would only push the two sides further apart.
She said only by China’s due consideration for the island nation’s system could there be a basis for resuming productive synergies across the Taiwan Strait.
“We look forward to the gradual resumption of healthy and orderly cross-strait people-to-people exchanges after the loosening of border restrictions on both sides, thereby easing tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” she said.
Beijing has suspended official exchanges and interactions with Taipei since Tsai was elected president in 2016, calling her a separatist. Tsai had made independence from China her main electoral platform, and she was nominated with a landslide majority. She has resolutely rejected the One-China principle.
Tsai, however, emphasised that Beijing’s relentless military intimidation of Taipei over the recent past, makes Taiwan’s defence upgradation and combat readiness exigent to ensure stability in the event of an attack from China.
“Over the past few years, we have stepped up defence reform and increased our defence budget each year in order to strengthen our national defence capabilities and resilience,” she said.
In late August 2022, Taiwan’s cabinet ratified a record NTD586.3 billion (USD18.5 billion) military budget – which would account for 2.4 percent of GDP in 2023.
Beijing has unabatedly, over the past few years, been escalating its military threats, diplomatic pressure and trade obstructions in a bid to coerce Taiwan into submission to accept the mainland’s sovereignty.
China sees Taiwan as a recalcitrant breakaway province, while Taiwan perceives itself as a sovereign state, with its own constitution, military and elected leaders, far removed from autocratic China. China, of late, has been using vehement rhetoric to validate the One-China principle and has vowed to use force if necessary to materialise a reunification.
Taiwan, on its part, depends heavily on the US for its immediate and future survival. The US position over the Taiwan issue, meanwhile, remains characteristically flip-flopped. While US President Joe Biden has, on four different occasions, pledged his commitment to defend Taiwan, the US perhaps ostensibly though officially keeps reiterating its acquiescence to a ‘One China,’ policy.
Despite the US affirmation that it abides by the One-China policy (as it did recently at the UN General Assembly session in September 2022) and that it does not subscribe to independence for Taiwan, the US is required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself under the US Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
The 1979 TRA states that the US will maintain the capacity to defend Taiwan but is not forthcoming on whether or not the US would actually militarily intervene if China attacked – ultimately this remains a US presidential decision.
In the same year (in 1979), the US recognised China and de-recognised Taiwan. It stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.”
Nonetheless, the US has continued to arm Taiwan. Over the past decade, the US has announced more than USD 20 billion in weapons sales to Taiwan. A recent (August 2022) approval of a USD 1.1 billion military equipment deal between the US and Taiwan has further been the subject of Chinese excoriation and verbal coercion for the US to renege.
The US has snubbed China’s invocation further with the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee (on 14 September 2022)’s endorsing legislation that would markedly enhance US military support for Taiwan, including provisions for billions of dollars in further defence reinforcement.
The bill would allocate USD 4.5 billion in security assistance for Taiwan over four years, and backs Taiwan’s engagement in international organisations. It also espouses changes in US policy toward Taiwan, such as treating it as a major non-NATO ally.
China gets increasingly tetchy with any legitimacy given to Taiwan by the US. The latest broad-based reorganisation of US policy toward Taiwan, has irked China a great deal and it said that it had lodged “solemn representations” with the United States. If the bill continues to go forward, it would affect US-China relations, it said.
China habitually bulldozes, internationally, moves by any country or corporation that make the slightest reference to Taiwan being an independent nation. And Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is right now seeking another term as president of the Eastern superpower, has made it his career’s mission to reunify the dissentient island with the mainland, and has been explicit in stating that this may be done by force if necessary.
On 16 October 2022, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) convened its weeklong 20th Congress to elect the country’s leader. Xi Jinping is most likely to secure a third term then as the President of China.
It is yet to be seen to what lengths Xi goes to manifest his objective of reunification. Xi could very well effectuate a blockade of Taiwan. The island would then be totally isolated from western arms shipments. Its thriving overseas trade would altogether be at the mercy of Chinese surveillance and possible sanction. This would irreparably damage Taiwan’s economy and would compel its legislators to submit to Chinese sovereignty.
China has already been efficacious in segregating Taiwan internationally through its economic, diplomatic and military might. Most nations of the world today have de-recognised Taiwan in favour of China as they get decisively ensconced in China’s Belt and Roads Initiative umbrella.
China has made it clear that it wishes to rule Taiwan under the ‘one country, two systems’ principle, as it does for Hong Kong. However, Taiwan’s perception of China’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong has made reunification an even more daunting prospect.
In Taiwan, anti-China sentiment is growing manifold. According to the Election Study Center at Taipei’s National Chengchi University, since 1997, the year China took over Hong Kong from the UK, the percentage of the Taiwanese population that endorses formal independence has doubled to more than 30 percent, while support for unification has fallen by more than half to single digits. The number of Taiwanese who call themselves Taiwanese has risen to 63 percent in 2021 from 47 percent in 1992, while those that claim they are Chinese has declined to almost 5 percent from 26 percent in 1992, according to the survey.
Yet, China, with more than 350 naval ships, 130 coast guard vessels, and hundreds more craft from the armed marine militia, certainly has the wherewithal to be able to quarantine (if not invade) Taiwan to force it to concede. The conspicuous fact is China has the largest navy in the world.
In case of a blockade by China of the Taiwan Strait, the primary route between East Asia and the rest of the world, merchant ships would have to change course. Consumers and companies would pay more for goods that would take longer to ship. Economically and financially, the whole world will suffer.
Of course, Taiwan would look to the US to play a pivotal role in propping up its independence by exercising sanctions on China. It would also expect its two main allies, the US and Japan, to militarily step in if China were to attack. The consequences of China making any move to establish corporeally its claims on Taiwan would be catastrophic for itself and the world if the US were to step in.
So, what will Xi think of doing in his third term (and possible future terms) as leader, since he is so obsessed with the reunification agenda? A sustained blockade would take a longer time than a brief decisive war to get Taipei to cow down. Both options would have repercussions on China. Nonetheless, will China dare to use force? President Xi Jinping has mentioned in public forums and in speeches that he has challenged the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop the capability to attack Taiwan at some point in time. So, is a fateful invasion imminent?
Taiwan’s insecurities are compounded by growing Chinese military superiority and fears that China may be in a position to take the island nation in a matter of years. May be, it will just have to look with some consolation at Russia’s war in Ukraine. That even asymmetrical force can be contended with through charismatic leadership and stubborn resistance. Both China and Taiwan have their lessons to learn from the war in Ukraine…
montes-musings.blog 
Phew – so much research would have gone into this . good peice
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